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Any possible way this goes bad for me?
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| Any possible way this goes bad for me?
- Click HERE to go to the original thread with graphics
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| Shocker54 |
| If I parlay and take the moneyline with Indy,NE, and Philly. It just seems too solid. |
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| timdawg6 |
What does it payout, Every time I do something like that, I always win 2 out of three. And most of the times the two wins you didnt even have to tease.
Might be better off doing a 3 team teaser with 10 points |
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| ndhalogod |
Just approximating in my head, payout will be about +110.
I think there's at least a possibility Indy's Run D doesn't show up or Philly flops. I agree with timdawg's suggestion. |
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| timdawg6 |
| Yeah, it pays around +110. Im taking it game by game |
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| bazookahead |
personally I think it's a horrible play... the bet offers no value at all... like nd said, you are getting about +110 to +120 on a 3 team bet... that type of betting will run through an account extremely quick... whether it hits or not, it's a bad play, to me, and a bet that will hit about 30-40 % of the time... you'd be better off flipping a coin on the spread...
I'm no expert so take it for what it's worth (though you don't need to be an expert to know that +110 on a 3 team parlay is gonna kill ya in the long run)... I like the value dawgs have this weekend...
at any rate, good luck... |
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| timdawg6 |
| Your right on, the best value bets are just straight up or Upset money line. You will lose playing like that in the long run |
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| EbolaMonkeyMan |
Quote: Originally posted by Shocker54
It just seems too solid. |
That statement could be your kiss of death. Everytime I win, its when I don't have to ask anyone. Funny how that is. I've posted the last 4 times I bet against Arizona St. on here. I've one all four. Looking back on it, I never had a doubt. So much so, that I just said TAKE SO AND SO AGAINST ASU. Never even looked for an opinion.
The other way I win is when I don't watch the fucking thing. It's like the team I bet on knows I'm watching and loves the look on my face. Everytime I bet on a game, and then go out, it comes through. I check the scores in the morning and it's like finding money in your pocket. I watch it and the team that I bet on goes retarded (example: Oklahoma).
Go with it and don't look back. |
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| timdawg6 |
| Always go with your gut, however bazzokahead is 100% correct, statistically is a horrible bet and playing like that in the long run will kill your bank role. Its like playing the field in Roulette you might win a couple times but in the long run the law of averages win |
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| bazookahead |
Quote: Originally posted by timdawg6
Always go with your gut, however bazzokahead is 100% correct, statistically is a horrible bet and playing like that in the long run will kill your bank role. Its like playing the field in Roulette you might win a couple times but in the long run the law of averages win |
here's a man that knows... picking winners is one thing but statistically putting yourself against the odds (more than the juice already does) is another..
tim, you set on any picks this weekend? I'm going with all dawgs on the moneyline... might try a 3 team teaser on all the dawgs and try the exact opposite parlay the original poster is doing (the eagles, to me, are the strongest fav)...
the giants vs eagles under is also appealing...
know you are getting over a rough stretch in the bowls, so here's to ya.. |
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| KingOfAllWhites |
This week is very tough.
I am definately all over KC tomorrow, think they have the best shot.
I alsi agree with Philly being the best thing to a lock.
I also like NE as well. Both favorites are also due to cover. |
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| timdawg6 |
I actually did very good in the bowls, It was the Okla Game that put me on Tilt, just that way it happened. I know one thing Im all over Southern Miss on Sunday.
I cant say I like all the dawgs moneyline. I rarely parlay except for the superbowl and last week. I probably will go huge on a Colts Eagles Teaser. Im a cowboys fan, but I dont see them winning. |
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| bazookahead |
yeah... I'm not a parlay man either, rarely if ever do them... but I will take an occasional stab at a big hit and if just the jets and KC come through, that's a +1550 value... but I could also see the colts jumping ahead and blowing out KC.. I don't see the pats blowing out the jets nor the dallas game being decided by more than 7...
will try s. miss sunday.. know nothing about either team but am thankful for some sunday night action..
kingofallwhites... toney vs peter rematch this week... lots of varying opinions on the fight, most guys I know 50/50... I'm taking a shot on toney straight up and by decision... you trying anything on that fight? |
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| timdawg6 |
| Is Toney in shape? He hasnt fought since that steriods scandal right? I wonder if Lampley will be doing the fight. They had friday nights fight in my town tonight, and I didnt even know. K9 will be fighting next week on there |
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| Yankees 420 |
| yea take KC. You cant trust that Colts D, and with Johnson running for KC, COULD be 1 and done again for the Colts |
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| bazookahead |
well.. toney is at a good weight for him (234) (weighed 233 for the 1st fight)... as far as him being in shape... lordy.. impossible to tell with that guy... his chin and defense keep him around for the decision but he's getting long in the tooth so who knows how many punches he will throw on the way though (though peter does have the power to probably stop him).. and, yeah, first fight back from the roids..
oddessa, the oddsmaker for most mma and boxing said:
"Toney wins but settles for Draw. Only bet I will make is Draw if I see high enough number."
he loves them draws.. he gave kingofallwhites and I the taylor vs wright draw and if I remember correctly, that was +1600...
I'll try a one unit bet on toney... besides the roy jones junior fight, he's been very good to me (him beating holyfield was a huge huge play for me)...
my boxing picks last year were the worst ever though... so who knows...
k9 would be a good guy to see live... |
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