|
Note: This is a Text only archive. Go directly to the real forum.
The sound you heard was Economic Growth Skidding to a Near Halt
- Click HERE to go to the original thread with graphics
banner
| The sound you heard was Economic Growth Skidding to a Near Halt
- Click HERE to go to the original thread with graphics
|
| patcracker |
WASHINGTON — Economic growth skidded to a near halt in the first quarter, with the worst showing in more than four years raising concerns about how long the country's sluggish spell will last.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased by just a 0.6 percent pace in the January-through-March period, much weaker than estimated a month ago. Government statisticians slashed by more than half their first estimate of a 1.3 percent growth rate for the quarter.
The main forces behind the downgrade: the bloated trade deficit and businesses cutting investment in supplies of the goods they hold in inventories.
"We got close, but the economy did not slip under the waves in the first quarter," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.
What largely prevented the economy from going under: consumers, who showed an even bigger appetite to spend.
For nearly a year, the economy has been enduring a stretch of subpar economic growth due mostly to a sharp housing slump. That in turn has made some businesses act more cautiously in their spending and investing.
The economy's 0.6 percent growth rate in the opening quarter of this year marked a big loss of momentum from the 2.5 percent pace logged in the final quarter of last year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says he doesn't believe the economy will slide into recession this year, nor do Bush administration officials and many economists. But ex-Fed chief Alan Greenspan has put the odds at one in three.
In fact, many economists believe the first quarter will probably turn out to be the weakest point for the economy this year.
"I think the worst is behind us," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. "While we did have a miserable quarter in the first three months of the year, it doesn't look like it will be repeated any time soon."
The National Association for Business Economics predicts the economy will expand at a 2.3 percent pace in the April-to-June quarter. If that happens, the economy would have staged a rebound but would still be growing a pace below its average, which is around 3 to 3.25 percent, analysts said. Yamarone, however, thinks the economy is poised for a bigger bounceback in growth.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is considered the best measure of the country's economic fitness.
The first-quarter's performance was the weakest since the final quarter of 2002, when the economy was recovering from a recession. At that time, GDP eked out a 0.2 percent growth rate.
In the first quarter, there was a larger trade deficit than first thought. That ended up shaving a full percentage point from the GDP. Businesses cut back on inventory investment as they tried to make sure unsold stocks of goods didn't get out of whack with customer demand. That lopped off nearly a percentage point to first quarter GDP.
Economists, however, were hopeful those negative forces would be reversed, helping the economy to gain some speed in the current quarter. But there are still wild cards including how consumers will behave given rising gasoline prices as well as the condition of the housing sector.
The sour housing market continued to weigh on overall economic activity.
Investment in home building was cut by 15.4 percent, on an annualized basis, in the first quarter. However, that wasn't as deep a cut as the 17 percent annualized drop initially estimated. And, it wasn't as severe as the 19.8 percent annualized drop seen in the final quarter of last year.
Consumers, whose spending is indispensable to the economy, boosted purchases by a 4.4 percent growth rate in the first quarter, the most in a year.
Some economists wonder how much interest consumers will have in continued brisk spending, however, given rising gasoline prices that have topped $3 a gallon in many markets. More money spent filling up the gas tank leaves less to spend on other things.
One of the reasons consumers have stayed so resilient even as the housing market has been stuck in a rut is because the job market has been good.
Fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department reported. New filings dropped by 4,000 to 310,000. That suggests the employment climate is weathering well the economy's sluggish spell.
Another report, meanwhile, showed construction spending edged up 0.1 percent in April, down from a 0.6 percent gain in the previous month.
Spending by private builders on nonresidential projects and spending by the government on big projects each climbed to all time highs in April but that strength was tempered by continued weakness in residential construction.
Taken together, the latest batch of reports suggest: "The economy doesn't seem to be at serious risk of a recession," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group.
___ |
|
|
| JTProcess |
Hey pat you got a link for this?
And where's NC Mike to fire back with some of those "HEAR THAT BOOM?" articles from conservative rags? |
|
|
| WillowGlen |
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18958579/
Here's the link. I was just coming here to post it but Pat was faster. Its a headline on the MSN homepage.
NCmoron will just claim that its from the evil Left wingers that control the AP and Microsoft. |
|
|
| nunpuncher |
lol im sure you were the guy while the bulls were winning all their rings saying
the bulls are gonna loose next year
from your article
Consumers, whose spending is indispensable to the economy, boosted purchases by a 4.4 percent growth rate in the first quarter, the most in a year.
funny how chinas market lost 6% yesterday and we went up 111 points
im sure all you biased folks that were bashing mike about chinas market driving ours
lined up yesterday to apologize |
|
|
| WillowGlen |
| One lies an the other one swears to it. You have to love the Bush sheep. |
|
|
| Luther |
Interviewed after one of the Republican presidential debates, candidate Ron Paul was asked why he wasn't happy over the surging stock market, high retail sales, and big corporate profits. His ready response was simple, direct and desperately needed. He said, "My personal finances would be very good if I borrowed a million dollars every month. But some day, the bills will become due."
Our nation borrows billions every single day. One of the largest purchasers of U.S. debt is communist China. To think that Beijing will never demand any payback is to believe that there is, indeed, such a thing as a free lunch.
The U.S. national debt now exceeds $9 trillion. If unfunded obligations are added, it is several times higher. Every new baby, immediately saddled with a portion of this burden, has more than one reason to cry at birth. Today's children are being victimized by the profligacy allowed by their parents and grandparents.
Another portion of the debt burden is borne by all Americans through the deceitful practice called inflation. Not all of the government's indebtedness is covered through borrowing. A sizeable amount is paid when the amount of currency is increased through the joint actions of the Federal Reserve and the government. More money created out of thin air gets pumped into the system and the practice results in a lowering of the value of all existing money. Hence, merchants, producers and service providers require more of it in return for their goods and services.
But the Federal Reserve and many in government would have everyone believe that inflation is the condition of rising prices. Its recommendations, therefore, always treat the symptom not the cause. If you pay more at the supermarket, gas pump, restaurant, etc., don't blame the provider. Blame government and its partner in the crime of inflation, the Federal Reserve.
Just as operating one's personal finances by borrowing will lead to disaster, running a nation on borrowed funds will lead to national suicide. But expecting the media-favored presidential candidates to utter such needed common sense is like expecting the sun to rise in West. The nation needs an end to debt and a return to honesty. |
|
|
| patcracker |
| Why isnt NCMIKE arguing that higher gas prices are good for the economy too. I think the 2nd quarter will do better than the 1st. If things get bad we can burrow some more China.....Its all good. |
|
|
| Luther |
Quote: Originally posted by patcracker
Why isnt NCMIKE arguing that higher gas prices are good for the economy too. I think the 2nd quarter will do better than the 1st. If things get bad we can burrow some more China.....Its all good. |
Euros per Dollar
 |
|
|
| nunpuncher |
| lol the dow and sp at all time highs and your complaining |
|
|
| nunpuncher |
Quote: Originally posted by WillowGlen
One lies an the other one swears to it. You have to love the Bush sheep. |
i assume you are refering to me
if so reread my post what am i swearing to
bushsheep lol
the only sheep here are ones who havent profited from the last 8 years because they were believing the economy sux baaa baaa |
|
|
| patcracker |
Quote: Originally posted by nunpuncher
i assume you are refering to me
if so reread my post what am i swearing to
bushsheep lol
the only sheep here are ones who havent profited from the last 8 years because they were believing the economy sux baaa baaa |
I'll tell that to my Exwifes husband who was just laid off becuase sales are in the toilet. Yes it does effect me becuase my child support payments could be raised. My company's sales are down by 15% from last year. Does the Dow being at 12,000 have any effecy on that? Fuck no. So crow about the stock market all you want but here in reality land, times are little more tougher. |
|
|
| nunpuncher |
im not crowing at all just pointing out facts
srry bout the job loss
sales being down 15 percent hope your company doesnt start laying off peolpe
ill keep my fingers crossed for you
btw my middle brother got laid off 2 years ago was out of work for about 6 weeks
got a new job with better bens and makes better money too
hopfully that will happen in your wifes case |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Yeah....3-4% average growth over the past 4-5 years couldn't sustain forever.... Interesting to note that the economy seriously began to slow when which party took office??? Fear and uncertainty of higher taxes will do wonders to slow down an economy.
But, the economy has been written off before. In 2004 by leftwing loon 'economist' Paul Krugman..
Quote: http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0706-02.htm
Published on Tuesday, July 6, 2004 by the New York Times
Bye-Bye, Bush Boom
by Paul Krugman
When does optimism — the Bush campaign's favorite word these days — become an inability to face facts? On Friday, President Bush insisted that a seriously disappointing jobs report, which fell far short of the pre-announcement hype, was good news: "We're witnessing steady growth, steady growth. And that's important. We don't need boom-or-bust-type growth."
But Mr. Bush has already presided over a bust. For the first time since 1932, employment is lower in the summer of a presidential election year than it was on the previous Inauguration Day. Americans badly need a boom to make up the lost ground. And we're not getting it.
When March's numbers came in much better than expected, I cautioned readers not to make too much of one good month. Similarly, we shouldn't make too much of June's disappointment. The question is whether, taking a longer perspective, the economy is performing well. And the answer is no.
If you want a single number that tells the story, it's the percentage of adults who have jobs. When Mr. Bush took office, that number stood at 64.4. By last August it had fallen to 62.2 percent. In June, the number was 62.3. That is, during Mr. Bush's first 30 months, the job situation deteriorated drastically. Last summer it stabilized, and since then it may have improved slightly. But jobs are still very scarce, with little relief in sight.
Bush campaign ads boast that 1.5 million jobs were added in the last 10 months, as if that were a remarkable achievement. It isn't. During the Clinton years, the economy added 236,000 jobs in an average month. Those 1.5 million jobs were barely enough to keep up with a growing working-age population.
In the spring, it seemed as if the pace of job growth was accelerating: in March and April, the economy added almost 700,000 jobs. But that now looks like a blip — a one-time thing, not a break in the trend. May growth was slightly below the Clinton-era average, and June's numbers — only 112,000 new jobs, and a decline in working hours — were pretty poor.
What about overall growth? After two and a half years of slow growth, real G.D.P. surged in the third quarter of 2003, growing at an annual rate of more than 8 percent. But that surge appears to have been another blip. In the first quarter of 2004, growth was down to 3.9 percent, only slightly above the Clinton-era average. Scattered signs of weakness — rising new claims for unemployment insurance, sales warnings at Target and Wal-Mart, falling numbers for new durable goods orders — have led many analysts to suspect that growth slowed further in the second quarter.
And economic growth is passing working Americans by. The average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory workers rose only 1.7 percent over the past year, lagging behind inflation. The president of Aetna, one of the biggest health insurers, recently told investors, "It's fair to say that a lot of the jobs being created may not be the jobs that come with benefits." Where is the growth going? No mystery: after-tax corporate profits as a share of G.D.P. have reached a level not seen since 1929.
What should we be doing differently? For three years many economists have argued that the most effective job-creating policies would be increased aid to state and local governments, extended unemployment insurance and tax rebates for lower- and middle-income families. The Bush administration paid no attention — it never even gave New York all the aid Mr. Bush promised after 9/11, and it allowed extended unemployment insurance to lapse. Instead, it focused on tax cuts for the affluent, ignoring warnings that these would do little to create jobs.
After good job growth in March and April, the administration declared its approach vindicated. That was premature, to say the least. Whatever boost the economy got from the tax cuts is now behind us, and given the size of the budget deficit, another big tax cut is out of the question. It's time to change the policy mix — to rescind some of those upper-income cuts and pursue the policies we should have been following all along.
One last point: government policies could do a lot about the failure of new jobs to come with health benefits, a huge source of anxiety for many American families. John Kerry is right to make health care a central plank of his platform. I'll analyze his proposals in a future column. |
Ooops....how that work out?? |
|
|
| WillowGlen |
More deflection from the cut and paste king.
Color me surprised. |
|
|
| clonetrooper |
also from msnbc 5/30/07
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18962050/
Has U.S. economy dodged a recession?
Though growth seems to be gaining, housing, energy prices remain a threat
Where’s the economy headed?
May 30: With the housing market still in a slump, the economic outlook is far from clear. CNBC asked two experts whether the slowing economy is headed for a “hard” or “soft” landing.
CNBC
By John W. Schoen
Senior Producer
MSNBC
Updated: 1:34 p.m. ET May 31, 2007
John W. Schoen
Senior Producer
Ordinarily, a report showing a big drop in economic growth might set off alarm bells among investors and economic forecasters. But the lousy first-quarter GDP numbers reported Thursday are history. The latest economic data for April and May indicate that a fairly convincing rebound is already under way.
After a relatively good showing of 2.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year, the U.S. economy slammed on the brakes in the first three months of 2007. Originally pegged at 1.6 percent growth, the government revised that estimate to just 0.6 percent — barely dodging an outright downturn.
An ongoing slump in the housing market, along with layoffs in construction, real estate, mortgage banking and other related industries, has weighed heavily on the economy. Fearing a further slowdown, businesses cut back sharply on inventories in the first quarter to avoid getting caught with unsold goods. That only made the slowdown worse.
But over the past two months there have been signs that business is picking up again. One of the latest came Thursday from a closely watched index of buying by purchasing managers, which moved higher than expected in May and showed strong growth in manufacturing across a broad range of industries. So the sharp cut in inventories in the first quarter may already be helping the economy get back on its feet again.
“When we go into the second quarter, we're going in with lean inventories,” said John Bitner, chief economist with Eastern Investment Advisors. “So the demand will be met from actual production. And we expect the second quarter to rebound.”
Businesses also seem to be getting back in a hiring mood. After a string of subpar monthly gains in employment, hiring in May appears to have picked up again. The latest jobs numbers from the government are due out Friday; economists are looking for non-farm payroll gains of about 130,000 in May, up from 88,000 in April, according a poll of economists by Reuters.
The pickup in hiring was already seen in a monthly jobs report from payroll processor ADP, which said Wednesday that private employers added 97,000 jobs in May. Because the survey does not include government workers, which have been gaining by about 25,000 a month, the ADP numbers suggest that roughly 122,000 jobs were created in May, according to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which jointly manages the data collection with ADP.
“Almost all of this job growth is coming from companies of small and medium size,” said Prakken. “But it is worth noting that for the first time since November of last year, there actually was an increase in employment at large firms in May.”
There are other promising signs in economic data released since the books were closed on the first quarter. Consumers spending remains relatively strong. So do corporate profits.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is continuing its “steady-as-she-goes” policy of trying to let the economy gradually pick up speed — without overheating. At their May 9 meeting on interest rates, the central bankers said they felt that inflation was still a bigger threat than a worsening slump, according to minutes released Wednesday.
But those minutes made clear the Fed’s assessment that the economy is not out of the woods yet, a belief shared by some private economists. The slow-motion unwinding of the housing market remains one of the biggest concerns. With this year’s spring selling season washed out, many forecasters don’t expect a rebound in housing until next year at the earliest.
Many borrowers who got in over their heads in the recent mortgage lending spree have yet to formally default on their loans, and foreclosures on those loans are expected to remain high through 2007. If housing prices continue to fall, that could put a deep crimp in consumer spending. That has some market watchers warning that a further housing downturn could bring a recession with it.
“In each of the seven prior housing declines, six of them ended up in full-blown recessions, one ended in a mini-recession,” said Hugh Moore, partner at Gerhard Advisors. “We believe we'll have a recession in late '07, early '08.”
Economists surveyed this month in the closely watched Blue Chip economic forecast pegged the odds of a recession within the next year at 26.1 percent — up slightly from 24.4 percent in the prior survey. But they still see the economy picking up stream in the current quarter. On average economists expect second-quarter GDP growth of 2.2 percent, according to the survey.
While most forecasters see growth picking up, that outlook is based on both interest rates and inflation remaining low. The Fed already has said inflation is running too high to justify a cut in short-term rates. Long-term rates have stayed relatively low in part because of strong investment, especially from overseas.
That investment is being fueled, in part, by strong global growth — especially in emerging economies like China and India. A slowdown in those economies could reduce the flow of cash to the United States. That, in turn, could force interest rates higher, creating a major headwind for the U.S. economy.
Energy prices are another wild card that could throw off forecasts for a slow but steady recovery. So far, record gasoline prices haven’t put a dent in demand at the pump, and consumer spending on other purchases continues to hold up. But with that spending responsible for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, any slowdown by consumers could take a big bite out of the overall economy.
© 2007 MSNBC Interactive |
|
|
| patcracker |
Quote: Originally posted by WillowGlen
More deflection from the cut and paste king.
Color me surprised. |
:funny: Maybe we should "Holy Elvis" NCMIKE too. |
|
|
| SaintJimmy |
Quote: Originally posted by patcracker
:funny: Maybe we should "Holy Elvis" NCMIKE too. |
At least Mike makes attempts to appear rational, which is more than can be said for Assholyelvis. |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by patcracker
:funny: Maybe we should "Holy Elvis" NCMIKE too. |
LOL...the last hope of an outmatched, out-thought, out argued leftbot....try to shout the other guy down...
:burst:
You prove your leftbot hypocrisy with every post shitpacker... :burst: |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by SaintJimmy
At least Mike makes attempts to appear rational, which is more than can be said for Assholyelvis. |
Thanks :)
I would say at least the same about you.. |
|
|
| Holy Elvis |
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz |
|
|
| Holy Elvis |
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz |
|
|
|
|
|
