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Report: Penn professors' findings contradict Clemens' analysis of career stats
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| Report: Penn professors' findings contradict Clemens' analysis of career stats
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| KingOfAllWhites |
It's OVA Johnny!
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Report: Penn professors' findings contradict Clemens' analysis of career stats
ESPN.com news services
Updated: February 10, 2008, 2:03 PM ET
Was a report released last month by Roger Clemens' agent supporting the Rocket's late-career statistical improvement just smoke and mirrors? An analysis of that report published Sunday says yes.
The linchpin of Clemens' report stated there were examples of an aging pitcher improving his statistics as he got older. An examination of those conclusions claim there were several flaws in the methodology of those findings, according to a report in The New York Times.
Clemens' agent, Randy Hendricks, shared an 18,000-word statistical report last month to try to explain how a pitcher could improve when most of his contemporaries were slowing down. One of the goals of the report was to dispute the claims of Clemens' former trainer, Brian McNamee, that Clemens took steroids and human growth hormone later in his career.
"Clemens' longevity was due to his ability to adjust his style of pitching as he got older, incorporating his very effective split-finger fastball to offset the decrease in the speed of his regular fastball caused by aging," the Clemens report said.
University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School professors Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Justin Wolfers and Adi Wyner wrote their opinions of Clemens' report in Sunday's editions of The New York Times. The group said that while Clemens accurately used examples of pitchers such as Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling that pitched well late in their careers, Clemens' report "artificially minimizes the chances that Clemens' numbers will seem unusual. Statisticians call this problem selection bias."
The professors also suggested something was amiss with Clemens' statistics.
"Our reading is that the available data on Clemens' career strongly hint that some unusual factors may have been at play in producing his excellent late-career statistics."
Hendricks Sports Management, who represent Clemens, responded to The Times story Sunday.
"The purpose of the report is to provide the statistical background of Roger Clemens' career and to correct misconceptions about his career in the public forum," Hendricks said in a statement.
The Penn professors did their own examination of pitchers who had durability similar to Clemens and used parameters including pitchers who started at least 10 games in at least 15 seasons and pitched at least 3,000 innings since 1968. Thirty one pitchers fell into this group in addition to Clemens.
The examination focused on the comparison of two common pitching stats for the sample group -- ERA and walks plus hits per nine innings -- and compared them to Clemens.
When looking at those numbers, the professors found Clemens' late-career success was statistically unusual. Most pitchers in this category peaked with their best numbers around the age of 30 while their declines started in their mid-30s -- about the time Clemens has been accused of using steroids. Clemens has vehemently denied using steroids or HGH.
Clemens' agents dispute the Penn professors' assumptions that the seven-time Cy Young award winner is just like the other pitchers in the sample size.
"Roger Clemens is not like every other pitcher in this group," the Hendricks statement read. "He is considered perhaps the best pitcher of his generation. The professors make the mistake of thinking that his career arc should look like the arc of every other pitcher in their selected group."
The statement went on to add that Clemens' well-noted workout regimen was similar to that of Ryan's and much of the Rocket's success late in his career can be attributed to this aspect of his preparation. It also said that just because changes to Clemens' pitching style can't be quantified -- like focusing less on his signature fastball and more on a split-fingered fastball -- doesn't mean those changes didn't impact Clemens' performance.
When analyzing Clemens' numbers, the Penn professors state, Clemens' statistics did the opposite of the rest of the sample. They claim the Rocket's stats declined as he neared his 30th birthday but then spiked again in his late 30s and early 40s.
The account in The Times also notes that Clemens' report focuses heavily on his ERA during his career. The Penn professors point out that that statistic can be heavily affected by outside influences other than the quality of the pitcher's performance, including the ability of a team's defense.
Clemens' camp disputes the claim that ERA is not as important a determining factor of a pitcher's performance and says the Penn professors didn't take into account several major changes in baseball during their sample period.
"The professors make no adjustments for any of the changes that have taken place in baseball over the last forty years, treating every hit and walk exactly the same, despite the lowering of the pitching mound, the tightening of the strike zone, the changes in equipment, the addition of the designated hitter, the introduction of modern ballparks, and other factors that have affected the game over the years," the Hendricks team said in their statement.
While the professors say Clemens' numbers appear unusual, there is no way to link them to steroids or HGH.
"In any analysis of his career statistics, it is impossible to say whether this unusual factor was performance-enhancing drugs," they wrote in The Times. |
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| Petey Arms |
| The Petey Arms Report agrees with The Clemens Report lol |
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| KingOfAllWhites |
lol, that backs up Penn.
Petey still lives off his parents, what the fuck does he know :D |
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