|
Note: This is a Text only archive. Go directly to the real forum.
Economy Grows For Second Straight Quarter
- Click HERE to go to the original thread with graphics
banner
| Economy Grows For Second Straight Quarter
- Click HERE to go to the original thread with graphics
|
| VacateTheWord |
Much to the chagrin of Liberals everywhere -
Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The fragile economy improved slightly at the beginning of the year and could grow a bit stronger in the current quarter as extra cash from tax rebates spurs people to buy more. Still, it's not out of danger yet.
The economy grew at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, helped in large part by stronger sales of U.S. products overseas, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
That was a tad stronger than the government's previous estimate of 0.9 percent growth for the quarter. And, the new reading was better than the anemic 0.6 percent growth rate logged in the final three months of last year.
Nonetheless, the two quarters together marked the slowest growth in five years. The economy has been bruised by housing, credit and financial problems. That led consumers during the first quarter alone to boost their spending at the weakest pace since the 2001 recession.
However, the government's tax rebates, the centerpiece of a $168 billion stimulus package, have helped to energize consumer spending in recent months, which should bolster the overall economy's performance in the April-to-June quarter.
The Federal Reserve, which on Wednesday halted a nearly yearlong rate-cutting campaign because of concerns about inflation, specifically credited "some firming in household spending" with a role in keeping the economy expanding.
As the stimulative effects of the tax rebates fades, though, some analysts worry that the economy could hit another rough patch.
"The economy is far from out of the woods," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight. He predicted second- and third-quarter economic growth would benefit from the tax rebates but he believes there will be a "relapse" in the final quarter of this year as the effect of the rebates wanes.
On Wall Street, stocks slumped. The Dow Jones industrials were down more than 200 points in afternoon trading.
Other reports issued Thursday showed weak spots in the economy.
New applications filed for unemployment insurance held steady at a high level of 384,000, the Labor Department said. The number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits climbed to 3.1 million, the most in more than four years. Employers have cut jobs each month so far this year as they cope with fallout from high energy prices, the housing slump and harder-to-get credit.
The National Association of Realtors, meanwhile, reported that sales of previously owned homes rose in May, although prices continued to drop. Sales went up 2 percent to a pace of 4.99 million units. The median sales price, however, fell to $208,600, down 6.3 percent from a year ago. That was the fifth biggest year-over-year price decline in records that go back to 1999. Many analysts think housing prices need to stop falling or start rising for the ailing housing market to get back its health.
Fallout from the housing crisis continued to be a big drag on first-quarter growth: builders slashed spending on housing projects by 24.6 percent on an annualized basis. That wasn't as bad, though, as the 25.2 percent cut made in the fourth quarter, the most in 26 years.
For now the second quarter is shaping up much better than earlier estimates of little, if any, growth for the period. At one point, some thought the economy might contract. Some second-quarter projections now range from more than 1 percent to just shy of 2 percent.
That still would be considered sluggish. More normal activity would be along the lines of a 2.5 percent to 3 percent pace.
The Fed may be able to leave interest rates where they are for a while so that the economy can gain traction. However, some believe the Fed might be forced to boost rates later this year to fend off inflation.
Others think the Fed won't start to push up rates until next year. Either way, the next move on rates is likely to be up, not down, analysts said. The timing will hinge on how energy and food prices and other inflation barometers behave in the months ahead.
An inflation measure linked to the gross domestic product report showed "core" prices, which strip out food and energy costs, increased at a rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter. That's up from a previous estimate and outside the Fed's comfort zone.
There's been a lot of talk about whether the country has fallen into a recession. The new GDP statistics did not meet what analysts consider one definition of a recession -- two straight quarters of shrinking economic activity. But that didn't happen in the last recession in 2001, either. And other barometers -- nationwide job losses and shriveling paychecks -- have pointed to a possible downturn. Such a determination is made by an academic panel, usually well after the fact.
"The first half will be more difficult than the second half," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press. Although "the predictions were so dire," the first quarter's performance shows "how resilient our economy is by being able to show growth in the face of challenges."
The Fed hopes its powerful series of rate reductions and the government's stimulus will lift the country out of the doldrums over time.
"By the first half of next year we look for the underlying health of the economy to finally improve," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "But for the balance of this year, it looks like the economy is trapped in a subpar growth pace but not a recession -- economic limbo."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080626/economy.html?.v=14 |
|
|
| Jazzy |
| This is important news. I think you should make two threads about it. |
|
|
| ZumayaFastball |
| hmmm...$140 a barrel of oil, stock market lowest since sept....mortage crisis..credit crunch..massive amounts of manufacturing jobs lost...highest deficiet EVER..rising food costs...airline and auto industry in the shitter...soaring health care costs..45 million uninsured... nice economy..4 more years!!!! 4 more years!!! |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord
Much to the chagrin of Liberals everywhere -
Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The fragile economy improved slightly at the beginning of the year and could grow a bit stronger in the current quarter as extra cash from tax rebates spurs people to buy more. Still, it's not out of danger yet.
The economy grew at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, helped in large part by stronger sales of U.S. products overseas, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
That was a tad stronger than the government's previous estimate of 0.9 percent growth for the quarter. And, the new reading was better than the anemic 0.6 percent growth rate logged in the final three months of last year.
Nonetheless, the two quarters together marked the slowest growth in five years. The economy has been bruised by housing, credit and financial problems. That led consumers during the first quarter alone to boost their spending at the weakest pace since the 2001 recession.
However, the government's tax rebates, the centerpiece of a $168 billion stimulus package, have helped to energize consumer spending in recent months, which should bolster the overall economy's performance in the April-to-June quarter.
The Federal Reserve, which on Wednesday halted a nearly yearlong rate-cutting campaign because of concerns about inflation, specifically credited "some firming in household spending" with a role in keeping the economy expanding.
As the stimulative effects of the tax rebates fades, though, some analysts worry that the economy could hit another rough patch.
"The economy is far from out of the woods," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight. He predicted second- and third-quarter economic growth would benefit from the tax rebates but he believes there will be a "relapse" in the final quarter of this year as the effect of the rebates wanes.
On Wall Street, stocks slumped. The Dow Jones industrials were down more than 200 points in afternoon trading.
Other reports issued Thursday showed weak spots in the economy.
New applications filed for unemployment insurance held steady at a high level of 384,000, the Labor Department said. The number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits climbed to 3.1 million, the most in more than four years. Employers have cut jobs each month so far this year as they cope with fallout from high energy prices, the housing slump and harder-to-get credit.
The National Association of Realtors, meanwhile, reported that sales of previously owned homes rose in May, although prices continued to drop. Sales went up 2 percent to a pace of 4.99 million units. The median sales price, however, fell to $208,600, down 6.3 percent from a year ago. That was the fifth biggest year-over-year price decline in records that go back to 1999. Many analysts think housing prices need to stop falling or start rising for the ailing housing market to get back its health.
Fallout from the housing crisis continued to be a big drag on first-quarter growth: builders slashed spending on housing projects by 24.6 percent on an annualized basis. That wasn't as bad, though, as the 25.2 percent cut made in the fourth quarter, the most in 26 years.
For now the second quarter is shaping up much better than earlier estimates of little, if any, growth for the period. At one point, some thought the economy might contract. Some second-quarter projections now range from more than 1 percent to just shy of 2 percent.
That still would be considered sluggish. More normal activity would be along the lines of a 2.5 percent to 3 percent pace.
The Fed may be able to leave interest rates where they are for a while so that the economy can gain traction. However, some believe the Fed might be forced to boost rates later this year to fend off inflation.
Others think the Fed won't start to push up rates until next year. Either way, the next move on rates is likely to be up, not down, analysts said. The timing will hinge on how energy and food prices and other inflation barometers behave in the months ahead.
An inflation measure linked to the gross domestic product report showed "core" prices, which strip out food and energy costs, increased at a rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter. That's up from a previous estimate and outside the Fed's comfort zone.
There's been a lot of talk about whether the country has fallen into a recession. The new GDP statistics did not meet what analysts consider one definition of a recession -- two straight quarters of shrinking economic activity. But that didn't happen in the last recession in 2001, either. And other barometers -- nationwide job losses and shriveling paychecks -- have pointed to a possible downturn. Such a determination is made by an academic panel, usually well after the fact.
"The first half will be more difficult than the second half," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press. Although "the predictions were so dire," the first quarter's performance shows "how resilient our economy is by being able to show growth in the face of challenges."
The Fed hopes its powerful series of rate reductions and the government's stimulus will lift the country out of the doldrums over time.
"By the first half of next year we look for the underlying health of the economy to finally improve," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "But for the balance of this year, it looks like the economy is trapped in a subpar growth pace but not a recession -- economic limbo."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080626/economy.html?.v=14 |
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh you are going to ruin the leftbot talkin point !!!!!!!!!!!!! (see post directly above this post for an example) |
|
|
| mr wrong |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh you are going to ruin the leftbot talkin point !!!!!!!!!!!!! (see post directly above this post for an example) |
What part isn't true.
Be specific, no deflections (yeah right). |
|
|
| ihateralphiec |
Recession is defined as two consecutive quarter of negative growth of the GDP, so technically there is no recession.
Go ahead and look up what comprises the GDP and figure out yourselves why even though things seem real bad on the whole, the numbers just show a sliver of growth.
This isn't my specialty, but I understand as if we buy 100 gallons of $4 gas or 400 gallons of $1 gas the GDP is the same.
I also think that if you sell $100 worth of food locally that took $60 to produce that is less to the GDP than selling $120 of food from another state across the country that took $80 to produce and ship the same food. Hence the term "Gross" Domestic Product, not "Net" or "Profit" domestic product.
Correct me if I am wrong, and provide link if I am mistaken, please.
Anyways, the definition is an indicator and it is indicating we are treading water which isn't so bad when looking at a moment in time. |
|
|
| Rafterman |
| Wall Street doesn't matter much, when Main Street is in the shitter. |
|
|
| Rafterman |
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
hmmm...$140 a barrel of oil, stock market lowest since sept....mortage crisis..credit crunch..massive amounts of manufacturing jobs lost...highest deficiet EVER..rising food costs...airline and auto industry in the shitter...soaring health care costs..45 million uninsured... nice economy..4 more years!!!! 4 more years!!! |
:bigup: |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
hmmm...$140 a barrel of oil, |
Right..a function of supply and demand...and given that demand is outrunning supply, it indicates a growing worldwide economy. Which, for the past 5 years, has included the United States. Even in the recent slowdown.
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
stock market lowest since sept.... |
OK...and within the past year, it had hit an all time high...whats your point?
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
mortage crisis..credit crunch.. |
Partly caused by the Fed and easing of money supply too quickly and for too long over the past 6 years. And partly caused by homowners and finance companies getting into contracts which should never have been signed. Now the government is set to bail everyone out.... wonder what message thats going to send?
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
massive amounts of manufacturing jobs lost... |
Massive amounts?? WHere? Be specific? ANd are you conveniently forgetting about the 51 months of job growth (a record, btw) that just ended a few months ago?
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
highest deficiet EVER.. |
Based on what?? Certainly not as a % pf GDP....where it is nowhere near the highest. Lets start cutting spending....can you cut any non defense spending??? I can.
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
rising food costs... |
Yeah, cause food is the same price its always been... :rolleyes: And lets send a special thanks to the ethonal morons for much of the cause of the rising food prices.....we wouldn't have it without ya. !
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
airline and auto industry in the shitter |
Mostly due to poorly run companies, and the oil situation.
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
...soaring health care costs..45 million uninsured... |
Healthcare costs have been rising for quite some time, and much of it has to do with government involvement in the system... 50ish+ million Americans are covered by some form of government healthcare.... More government = higher costs. Lets get a real free market system, and watch the prices fall.
And the 45 million number is completely bogus, as I have proven in other threads. 10-12 million of that number includes illegal aliens. Another 5 or so million include higher income or younger people who choose not to be covered. And to be included in that number, you just had to have not had health insurance for 1 DAY of the year that was studied. (2005 I believe). And about 7-8 million of that number are eligible for government health care at some level, but don't know it, or don't apply for it.
It is bullshit.
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
nice economy..4 more years!!!! 4 more years!!! |
You just can't get past the fact that we have had 5 years of significant growth, low unemployment, record job growth, low inflation, and rising exports. No talking points can change those facts. People like you want to believe that this is the first slowdown in the history of the nation... You show a distinct lack of historical understanding, facts, and economic understanding in your trite polemic. Just as I said....facts debunk the talking points everytime... |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by mr wrong
What part isn't true.
Be specific, no deflections (yeah right). |
Happy? |
|
|
| mr wrong |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Happy? |
What exactly did you prove?? You can place blame all you want, but it doesn't negate the fact that we are where we are- in the here and now, and good hardworking people are are really starting to feel the effects of it. |
|
|
| WillowGlen |
| So if more money is spent for the same things that now cost more its "economic growth". Wow you really are a deluded cheeleader arent you? |
|
|
| ZumayaFastball |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Happy? |
i guess you missed the point..so let me simplify it for you..
the...economy....sucks...ass...
blame the liberals all you want...your retarded drunkard hero dubya is at the helm...
coincedence?? nah..afterall...he is a (on more than one occasion) failed businessman...im sure he has NOTHING to do with it.. |
|
|
| ZumayaFastball |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Happy? |
oh..and as for those lost manufacturing jobs that you dont know about..let me fill you in
..how about right here in michigan..where the auto companies are laying off factory workers by the tens of thousands...that effects the suppliers and sellers..those jobs are being lost. plus we had a refigerator factory close this year, and a washer and dryer factoy close up north. the steel plant not far from my house is laying off people...the casinos are downsizing..i could go on..ands just here in michigan...(7% unemployment) those manufactoring jobs that once paid 20 bucks an hour (plus benefits)are outsourcing to contract companies who pay 8 bucks an hour..
same shit is happening all over ohio and penn and ind. if you dont think we are losing manufacturing jobs..youre not paying attention
is that specific enough for you?
listen..Im not blaming that monkey boy-king bush for EVERYTHING..but he is fucking our shit up and he is in charge...he (and mcsame) have no vision..have no ideas..their solution is to let the market handle it...when companies fail to live up to expectations...the blame falls on the CEO |
|
|
| rod_jammer |
| In other news, the Dow plunged 358 pts...and is down 20% in the last 9 month. But yeah, everything is peachy. Now tell us about how great Iraq is going, you delusional nitwit. |
|
|
| VacateTheWord |
Quote: Originally posted by rod_jammer
In other news, the Dow plunged 358 pts...and is down 20% in the last 9 month. But yeah, everything is peachy. Now tell us about how great Iraq is going, you delusional nitwit. |
Fluctuations in the stock market are not indicators of how the economy is doing. Next week it will likely rebound. But it is no surprise that you would cherry-pick whatever you could find to say that the economy is tanking, right?
And Iraq is a deflection, and a bad one at that as we are winning. |
|
|
| Billyfromsphily |
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord
Fluctuations in the stock market are not indicators of how the economy is doing. Next week it will likely rebound. But it is no surprise that you would cherry-pick whatever you could find to say that the economy is tanking, right?
And Iraq is a deflection, and a bad one at that as we are winning. |
NO the economy is strong isn't it? With all those shit jobs being created at Wal Mart and Burger King every month.....
Look at all the deals on cars and trucks right now..I guess they are giving them away since the economy is only fluctuating?
Wait til the summer is over and see what happens to the economy in Sept When all the Wall Streeters get back from vacation ...The cost of gas is going to start to hurt like hell then !
. |
|
|
| uhohhotdog |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Happy? |
This is not one of my best posts....
NCMike, shut the fuck you you dork. We ALL hate you. You're stupid, obnoxious, annoying, oblivious, stubborn, and although I've never met you(if I did, I would hold you down and piss in your face) I am sure you're ugly, fat and bald. I can understand why you hate life. But we don't. We love life. And America. And Howard Stern.
Quit posting on the board you fucking hack. Your posts are complete bullshit, filled with double talk and all of the sources of highly questionable. You make no points, except for that neocons(and you are a neocon, as you have no issues with the Bush administration) are ruining the country.
This is your legacy. While we are going to be rebuilding this country for our kids(I hope you don't have kids, and if you do, my kids are going to fuck them) you're going to be sitting in your one bedroom shithole apartment pining for the "good old days." There are no good old days. You people had your shot, and you blew it.
Go fuck yourself you huge loser, and through one in your pig whore of a wife for me.
Again, not my best post, but who cares? You're a piece of shit. |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
i guess you missed the point..so let me simplify it for you..
the...economy....sucks...ass...
blame the liberals all you want...your retarded drunkard hero dubya is at the helm...
coincedence?? nah..afterall...he is a (on more than one occasion) failed businessman...im sure he has NOTHING to do with it.. |
Wow...what a stunningly specific and detailed rebuttal.... :rolleyes: |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by ZumayaFastball
oh..and as for those lost manufacturing jobs that you dont know about..let me fill you in
..how about right here in michigan..where the auto companies are laying off factory workers by the tens of thousands...that effects the suppliers and sellers..those jobs are being lost. plus we had a refigerator factory close this year, and a washer and dryer factoy close up north. the steel plant not far from my house is laying off people...the casinos are downsizing..i could go on..ands just here in michigan...(7% unemployment) those manufactoring jobs that once paid 20 bucks an hour (plus benefits)are outsourcing to contract companies who pay 8 bucks an hour..
same shit is happening all over ohio and penn and ind. if you dont think we are losing manufacturing jobs..youre not paying attention
is that specific enough for you?
listen..Im not blaming that monkey boy-king bush for EVERYTHING..but he is fucking our shit up and he is in charge...he (and mcsame) have no vision..have no ideas..their solution is to let the market handle it...when companies fail to live up to expectations...the blame falls on the CEO |
Wow...the anecdotal evidence is flying fast and free now !!! Still no specifics, and still nothing about how these anecdotal examples (provided they even exist) fit into the economy as a whole...
But, whatever...keep trying though... |
|
|
| Billyfromsphily |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Wow...what a stunningly specific and detailed rebuttal.... :rolleyes: |
It has more truth in it that any of your selfcentered, I stumped you , Bullshit posts. |
|
|
| Billyfromsphily |
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
Wow...the anecdotal evidence is flying fast and free now !!! Still no specifics, and still nothing about how these anecdotal examples (provided they even exist) fit into the economy as a whole...
But, whatever...keep trying though... |
Nice comeback........Anecdotal eveidence? I guess the laoffs that werte reported all year were anecdotal.
You jerkoff! |
|
|
| rod_jammer |
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord
Fluctuations in the stock market are not indicators of how the economy is doing. Next week it will likely rebound. But it is no surprise that you would cherry-pick whatever you could find to say that the economy is tanking, right?
And Iraq is a deflection, and a bad one at that as we are winning. |
This year, crude oil is up 50% and the Dow is down 20%: this is not a one day fluctuation. If you are someone who believes in the market, take a look at the stock of Citibank or General Motors (at a 53yr low!). Today's WSJ highlighted that financial stock index is mirroring the Nasdaq in 2000.
And exactly what are we "winning" in Iraq? |
|
|
| VacateTheWord |
Quote: Originally posted by rod_jammer
This year, crude oil is up 50% and the Dow is down 20%: this is not a one day fluctuation. If you are someone who believes in the market, take a look at the stock of Citibank or General Motors (at a 53yr low!). Today's WSJ highlighted that financial stock index is mirroring the Nasdaq in 2000.
And exactly what are we "winning" in Iraq? |
Again, this is cherry-picking in a futile attempt to say that the economy is "tanking" when the reality of the situation is that it is growing. The value of General Motors stock is low is because they have high overhead (especially in the pension department) and have gone on far too long in producing a line of automobiles that the people don't want.
As to Iraq - we are right on track in establishing a country that can govern itself, sustain itself, defend itself and will be an ally in the War on Terror. That is what we are winning. |
|
|
| Billyfromsphily |
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord
Again, this is cherry-picking in a futile attempt to say that the economy is "tanking" when the reality of the situation is that it is growing. The value of General Motors stock is low is because they have high overhead (especially in the pension department) and have gone on far too long in producing a line of automobiles that the people don't want.
As to Iraq - we are right on track in establishing a country that can govern itself, sustain itself, defend itself and will be an ally in the War on Terror. That is what we are winning. |
"Rearrange the deck chairs , Its only a course correction".
Capt Edward J. Smith after the Titanic hit an iceberg!
. |
|
|
| Spinboy |
Quote: Originally posted by uhohhotdog
This is not one of my best posts....
NCMike, shut the fuck you you dork. We ALL hate you. You're stupid, obnoxious, annoying, oblivious, stubborn, and although I've never met you(if I did, I would hold you down and piss in your face) I am sure you're ugly, fat and bald. I can understand why you hate life. But we don't. We love life. And America. And Howard Stern.
Quit posting on the board you fucking hack. Your posts are complete bullshit, filled with double talk and all of the sources of highly questionable. You make no points, except for that neocons(and you are a neocon, as you have no issues with the Bush administration) are ruining the country.
This is your legacy. While we are going to be rebuilding this country for our kids(I hope you don't have kids, and if you do, my kids are going to fuck them) you're going to be sitting in your one bedroom shithole apartment pining for the "good old days." There are no good old days. You people had your shot, and you blew it.
Go fuck yourself you huge loser, and through one in your pig whore of a wife for me.
Again, not my best post, but who cares? You're a piece of shit. |
Another non-constructive hate post... |
|
|
| rod_jammer |
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord
Again, this is cherry-picking in a futile attempt to say that the economy is "tanking" when the reality of the situation is that it is growing. The value of General Motors stock is low is because they have high overhead (especially in the pension department) and have gone on far too long in producing a line of automobiles that the people don't want.
As to Iraq - we are right on track in establishing a country that can govern itself, sustain itself, defend itself and will be an ally in the War on Terror. That is what we are winning. |
Any metric that you choose (GDP, consumer confidence, unemployment, etc.) will show that the economy is in decline.
And the Iraqi government is closely aligned with Iran; is this an ally in the "War on Terror"? |
|
|
| NCMike06 |
Quote: Originally posted by rod_jammer
Any metric that you choose (GDP, consumer confidence, unemployment, etc.) will show that the economy is in decline. |
From where it was for the past few years, it is in decline..that does NOT mean recession, nor does it mean a horrible economy. By any metric GDP, unemployment, ect...the economy has done very well the past 5 years...
Quote: Originally posted by rod_jammer
And the Iraqi government is closely aligned with Iran; is this an ally in the "War on Terror"? |
THey are? Why then have they attacked and defeated the Iranian proxy's inside Iraq? Why did they reject demands from Iran to not negotiate an agreement with the US? Why are they signing agreements with American oil firms? |
|
|
| ihateralphiec |
My bump of the day
:rofl: |
|
|
|
|
|
