Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.
It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.
Only this will be a different kind of recession -- a recession with an overlay of inflation. That combo puts the Federal Reserve in a Catch-22 -- whatever it does to solve one problem only makes the other worse. Emerging from a two-day meeting this week, Fed officials signaled that further recession-fighting rate cuts are unlikely and that their next move will be to raise rates to contain inflationary expectations.
Since last June, we've seen a fairly consistent pattern to the economic mood swings. Every three months or so, there's a round of bad news about housing, followed by warnings of more bank write-offs and then a string of disappointing corporate earnings reports. Eventually, things stabilize and there are hints that the worst may be behind us. Stocks regain some of their lost ground, bonds fall and then -- bam -- the whole cycle starts again.
It was only in November that the Dow had recovered from the panicked summer sell-off and hit a record, just above 14,000. By March, it had fallen below 12,000. By May, it climbed above 13,000. Now it's heading for a new floor at 11,000. Officially, that's bear market territory. We'll be lucky if that's the floor.
In explaining why that second-half rebound never occurred, the Fed and the Treasury and the Wall Street machers will say that nobody could have foreseen $140 a barrel oil. As excuses go, blaming it on an oil shock is a hardy perennial. That's what Jimmy Carter and Fed Chairman Arthur Burns did in the late '70s, and what George H.W. Bush and Alan Greenspan did in the early '90s. Don't believe it.
Truth is, there are always price or supply shocks of one sort or another. The real problem is that the underlying fundamentals had gotten badly out of whack, making the economy susceptible to a shock. The only way to make things better is to get those fundamentals back in balance. In this case, that means bringing what we consume in line with what we produce, letting the dollar fall to its natural level, wringing the excess capacity out of industries that overexpanded during the credit bubble and allowing real estate prices to fall in line with incomes.
The last hope for a second-half rebound began to fade earlier this month when Lehman Brothers reported that it wasn't as immune to the credit-market downturn as it had led everyone to believe. Lehman scrambled to restore confidence by firing two top executives and raising billions in additional capital, but even that wasn't enough to quiet speculation that it could be the next Bear Stearns.
Since then, there has been a steady drumbeat of worrisome news from nearly every sector of the economy.
American Express and Discover warn that customers are falling further behind on their debts. UPS and Federal Express report a noticeable slowdown in shipments, while fuel costs are soaring. According to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in the top 20 markets fell 15 percent in April from the year before, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac report that mortgage delinquency rates doubled over the same period -- and that's for conventional home loans, not subprime. United Airlines accelerates the race to cut costs and capacity by laying off 950 pilots -- 15 percent of its total -- as a number of airlines retire planes and hint that they may delay delivery or cancel orders of new jets from Boeing and Airbus. Goldman Sachs, which has already had to withdraw its rosy forecast for stocks, now admits it was also too optimistic about junk bond defaults, and analysts warn that Citigroup and Merrill Lynch will also be forced to take additional big write-downs on their mortgage portfolios.
From the tone of the majority of your posts, it almost seems like you are rooting for a recession and failure it Iraq. Is there a limit to what you will politicize?
Some who only focuses on the negatives in life is destined to be unhappy and unsatisfied.
I'm guessing that your troubles in life have always been the result of some outside influence.
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by Spinboy From the tone of the majority of your posts, it almost seems like you are rooting for a recession and failure it Iraq. Is there a limit to what you will politicize?
Iraq IS a failure.
The recession WILL get worse.
That's not politicizing. That's reality.
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by Spinboy Some who only focuses on the negatives in life is destined to be unhappy and unsatisfied.
Yeah, JT. We should be whistling our asses off all the way to the soup kitchen. "Mmmm, mmmmmm.....dumplings again!"
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Iraq IS a failure.
The recession WILL get worse.
That's not politicizing. That's reality.
We are WINNING Iraq.
There is NO recession.
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
alter-ego69
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Iraq IS a failure.
You might want to check the media on that. Oh wait.....you can hardly find any news on Iraq in the media now. I wonder why that is? Could it be that things are going a little too well in Iraq now?
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie The recession WILL get worse.
A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters (6 months) of NEGATIVE growth. We have yet to have ONE month of NEGATIVE growth.
That's reality.
cal!guL.A.
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69 Could it be that things are going a little too well in Iraq now?
oh really!? that must mean no US soldier has died recently. :rolleyes:
BuddyChrist
I'm never particularly convinced when a journalist makes economic predictions.
Hell, I'm not convinced when ANYONE makes economic predictions.
That said, the deficit spending through the bull market of the past 4 years or so has really screwed us over. Being in a credit-rationing situation, interest rate cuts still have the downside of raising prices without any of the benefits of loosening credit.....so monetary policy is fairly useless in our current situation.
Had we run a surplus the past few years instead of spending over $100,000 on each Iraqi citizen giving them a type of government that they don't want, we'd be able to loosen the purse strings and upgrade some of our aging infrastructure during this current downturn. In addition to providing capital investment for future US growth by upgrading the aging power grids and other crumbling infrastructure, it would provide middle-class jobs and increase consumer spending.
Obama says that he wants to do this anyhow, but the irresponsible fiscal policies preceding him have likely greatly limited the extent that it is possible.
In other words, we should have been able to weather this storm a lot better than we're going to be able to.
Rush Has AIDS
384,000 filed for unemployment last month. WHy don't you go tell those people that there's no recession, and that everything is great?
And we're not winning in Iraq. We've all ready lost in Iraq. It's just a question now of how badly do we want to lose. An operation that we were assured would not take more than a year is now over five.
There is no true democracy in Iraq. We have a Prime Minister that we installed after we didn't like the first couple that we didn't like so much. There is still the same tribal unrest, the same rivalries that have existed for centuries, and they are still trying to kill each other.
Iraqis still do not have clean water or electricity on a constant basis. There are millions of Iraqis who have been forced from their homes, fleeing the country; fleeing from sectarian violence, and fleeing from our troops, and lawless contractors.
We may be killing Al Qaeda forces in Iraq, but that does not mean we are going after Al Qaeda worldwide. They may be weak there, but they are much stronger elsewhere, and they can wait. At this point we are only killing Iraqis who are defending their country.
No, we are most certainly not winning.
That's the reality.
alter-ego69
Quote: Originally posted by Rush Has AIDS 384,000 filed for unemployment last month. WHy don't you go tell those people that there's no recession, and that everything is great?
384,000 people filing for unemployment does not mean we're in a recession. Sorry.
Quote: Originally posted by Rush Has AIDS And we're not winning in Iraq. We've all ready lost in Iraq. It's just a question now of how badly do we want to lose. An operation that we were assured would not take more than a year is now over five.
Wrong on all accounts. You're a defeatist, pure and simple. Who's ass did you pull out that this would not take more than a year? That has never been stated by those running the show.
Quote: Originally posted by Rush Has AIDS Iraqis still do not have clean water or electricity on a constant basis. There are millions of Iraqis who have been forced from their homes, fleeing the country; fleeing from sectarian violence, and fleeing from our troops, and lawless contractors. [/B]
There are Americans that have no clean water or electricity on a consistent basis. Millions of Iraqi's are returning to their homes.
Quote: Originally posted by Rush Has AIDS We may be killing Al Qaeda forces in Iraq, but that does not mean we are going after Al Qaeda worldwide. They may be weak there, but they are much stronger elsewhere, and they can wait. [/B]
Proof of this? Are you in touch with al Queda leaders. You act as if it would be a good thing if they were stronger.
Quote: Originally posted by Rush Has AIDS No, we are most certainly not winning.
That's the reality. [/B]
Reality to a liberal means very little.
JTProcess
Quote: Originally posted by Spinboy From the tone of the majority of your posts, it almost seems like you are rooting for a recession and failure it Iraq. Is there a limit to what you will politicize?
Some who only focuses on the negatives in life is destined to be unhappy and unsatisfied.
I'm guessing that your troubles in life have always been the result of some outside influence.
nah I just don't live in the land of happy rainbows and unicorns where you do... that vaccum sealed bubble you live in that can't be penetrated by reality.
Greengoblin
Quote: Originally posted by Rush Has AIDS 384,000 filed for unemployment last month. WHy don't you go tell those people that there's no recession, and that everything is great?
And we're not winning in Iraq. We've all ready lost in Iraq. It's just a question now of how badly do we want to lose. An operation that we were assured would not take more than a year is now over five.
I would like to know where it was said it would take under a year.
I remember Rummy in the beginning sayin something to the effect of " it could be 1 year, it could be five years, depending on what happens on the ground"
artiel
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 We are WINNING Iraq.
There is NO recession.
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
As you know, I do hate Bush; But that fact is completely separate from the fact that we are in the beginning of a recession, and it is going to get bad. Very bad.
Regarding Iraq, you already know that I feel that we won, and should be home.
artiel
Quote: Originally posted by Greengoblin I would like to know where it was said it would take under a year.
I remember Rummy in the beginning sayin something to the effect of " it could be 1 year, it could be five years, depending on what happens on the ground"
Nope. I believe he said it could be 6 days, 6 weeks, but he doubts 6 months.
artiel
For your edification:
"It is unknowable how long that conflict [the war in Iraq] will last. It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months." -Donald Rumsfeld in Feb. 2003
artiel
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69
Reality to a liberal means very little.
"Reality has a well known liberal bias" -Stephen Colbert
CrackHead_Fan
Where's the "HOPE!?!?"
Rush Has AIDS
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69
Wrong on all accounts. You're a defeatist, pure and simple. Who's ass did you pull out that this would not take more than a year? That has never been stated by those running the show.
Try doing a little research Junior, before you make an ass out of yourself again.
Rush Has AIDS
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69 384,000 people filing for unemployment does not mean we're in a recession. Sorry.
Oh no... things are just peachy for these people. With the unemployment rate climbing higher, these people have no idea how good they have it.
HEY YOU LAZY BUMS! WHY DON'T YOU INVEST IN OIL FUTURES?!?!? YOU NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD! ~~ "alter-ego69"
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69
Wrong on all accounts. You're a defeatist, pure and simple.
Actually I'm right. It is you who is the defeatist. You can't even see that this "strategy" is not working. It is not working to the ends that we need in order to pull out, only to ensure that we stay there forever. The President himself did not even know the difference between the Sunni & Shiite before we invaded, did you?
Trying reading more than Conservative websites and get the real news. You might be surprised.
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69
There are Americans that have no clean water or electricity on a consistent basis. Millions of Iraqi's are returning to their homes.
Americans were not bombed out of their homes.
And here's something else to ponder:
Kathleen Newland of the Washington-based, non-profit Migration Policy Institute says many Iraqis are reluctant to return, despite the improved security atmosphere in Iraq.
"The word gets back from people who have returned that the conditions are very difficult. Some of the refugees will be able to go back to their own houses or to neighborhoods that are occupied by people of their own religious conviction," says Newland. "But about 70 percent of them have not been able to get back into their own houses because they have found them occupied by other people, and it is going to take a very long time to sort that out. So Iraq is just not ready for large-scale returns."
Surveys done by the United Nations and several aid agencies show that many Iraqis return because they have exhausted their savings. Once they return, however, they often find their old neighborhoods redrawn along sectarian lines, as Dana Graberladek of the International Organization for Migration in Jordan points out.
"People are not able to return to their neighborhoods because their neighborhoods have become homogenous. They were forced out because of their religious sect and now they can not return to their actual home because they do not feel safe because it is no longer a mixed community," says Graberladek.
A somewhat stabilized security situation allowed Iraq's Ministry of Displacement and Migration to encourage repatriation in November and December. The ministry offered registered refugees about $800 to help them resettle in Iraq and the parliament recently increased that amount.
Here's some money, no go away. This isn't your home anymore. Yeah... what a grand return it is.
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69
Proof of this? Are you in touch with al Queda leaders. You act as if it would be a good thing if they were stronger.
Never said anything about it being a good thing. But then I'm used to Republicans making wild assumptions in order to help satisfy a weak argument. I'm simply pointing out REALITY[b] for you, and trying to break you out of your ridiculous fantasies
But hey, don't take my word for it. Maybe that "liberal State Department can shed some light:
The State Department has just released its annual report on global terrorism, as it does every April 30. Some highlights (read the AP synopsis here):
* On the strength of Al Qaeda: "It has reconstituted some of its pre-9/11 operational capabilities through the exploitation of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas ... and [restored] some central control by its top leadership, in particular Ayman al-Zawahiri."
* On Al Qaeda's leadership: "Numerous senior al-Qaida operatives have been captured or killed, but al-Qaida leaders continued to plot attacks and to cultivate stronger operational connections that radiated outward from Pakistan to affiliates throughout the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe."
* Terrorist attacks in Pakistan doubled between 2006 and 2007 and the number of fatalities quadrupled
* In Afghanistan, the number of terrorist attacks rose 16 percent in 2007
* Terrorist attacks in Iraq declined slightly between 2006 and 2007, but still accounted for 60 percent of terrorism fatalities worldwide, including 17 of the 19 Americans killed in attacks last year
* More than 22,000 people were killed by terrorists worldwide in 2007, 8 percent more than in 2006
* Iran is the world's "most active" state sponsor of terrorism
* In Iraq: 13,600 noncombatants were killed in 2007; suicide bombings in country rose by 50 percent; suicide car bombings were up 40 percent and suicide bombings outside of vehicles climbed 90 percent over 2006
Quote: Originally posted by alter-ego69 [B]
Reality to a liberal means very little.
I'm not a liberal, but if that helps you sleep at night, knowing that the evil brown men, and the liberals are out to get you, well... you should seek professional help.
Good Night Sweet 20-Percenter
pluckinstrings
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
Pot? Meet Kettle.
JTProcess
man the naivete of the far right...
they're willing to put faith in statistics from the same people who it's been proven lied them into countelss catastrophes.
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 We are WINNING Iraq.
There is NO recession.
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
Mike, quit letting everyone know how full of shit you are.
WE ARE NOT WINNING IN IRAQ! WE WILL NEVER WIN, NOR CAN WE! IT IS NOT A WINNABLE CONFLICT!
I'll give you, by the technical definition of a recession, we are not there YET. It's coming and it's going to be bad.......NOBODY is disputing that.
This isn't I HATE BUSH fantasy land. This is the most fucked up economy in my adult life. If you don't see that, you're either lying to yourself, hypnotized or just plain stupid.
I don't want to be insulting or resort to name-calling so you decide which of those three choices you'll admit to.
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by CrackHead_Fan Where's the "HOPE!?!?"
Right here: We HOPE Obama gets elected.
Rike
wait, its just starting RIGHT NOW? You stupid libs have been telling me its been happening for years now! All of that was bullshit and the real recession is starting right now, huh? Somehow I'm not buying it.
mingmen
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 We are WINNING Iraq.
There is NO recession.
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
yeah, our investment in iraq will pay off in spades :burst:
we already have a lot to show for it
mingmen
Quote: Originally posted by Rike Somehow I'm not buying it.
no way? :burst:
guns or butter
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Mike, quit letting everyone know how full of shit you are.
WE ARE NOT WINNING IN IRAQ! WE WILL NEVER WIN, NOR CAN WE! IT IS NOT A WINNABLE CONFLICT!
Sorry..you are just completely and totally wrong...AGAIN...as you seem to be on almost every issue.... You keep repeating this nonsense over and over...you have convinced yourself of it in the face of all the facts which scream otherwise....
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie I'll give you, by the technical definition of a recession, we are not there YET. It's coming and it's going to be bad.......NOBODY is disputing that.
You were saying the same thing 6 months ago... we were supposedly in a recession then too.....then it was going to come in the first quarter, then the second quarter.... then......And we are going to hit a recession at some time eventually. People like you act as though the economy has never slowed down, ever. You want to make it seem like this is the first time in 230 years, the American economy has slowed down.. Do you have ANY sense of history>?
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie This isn't I HATE BUSH fantasy land. This is the most fucked up economy in my adult life.
Maybe you werent around in the 70's...it was much worse.... You have had a pretty good adult life if this is as bad as its ever been....
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie If you don't see that, you're either lying to yourself, hypnotized or just plain stupid.
I don't see it because the facts don't show it...and the facts of the past 5 years certainly don't show it.... Your fantasy land refuses to accept those facts. You have your story and you are sticking to it, regardless of the truth.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie I don't want to be insulting or resort to name-calling so you decide which of those three choices you'll admit to.
/yawn. Can't you be even a little creative?
Rafterman
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Iraq IS a failure.
The recession WILL get worse.
That's not politicizing. That's reality.
:bigup:
You bet your ass it's reality!
mingmen
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 Sorry..you are just completely and totally wrong...AGAIN...as you seem to be on almost every issue.... You keep repeating this nonsense over and over...you have convinced yourself of it in the face of all the facts which scream otherwise....
thoroldjames
this isn't a recession
it may become one, but it isn't one yet
the fact you can't afford a $400,000 home, or to fill up a Chevy Tahoe doesn't mean recession
mingmen
Quote: Originally posted by thoroldjames this isn't a recession
it may become one, but it isn't one yet
the fact you can't afford a $400,000 home, or to fill up a Chevy Tahoe doesn't mean recession
yeah, there is no weakness to our currency. that is a myth spread by dems to steal the election
mingmen
the fed has plenty of room left to lower the rates and stim, stim, stim the economy
thoroldjames
Quote: Originally posted by mingmen yeah, there is no weakness to our currency. that is a myth spread by dems to steal the election
the US currency has gone for shit
things have certainly slowed down
that doesn't mean recession---we may find ourselves there, in fact I think we might--but not yet
no different than when a corporation that made $10 billion last year and only makes $8 billion this year claims it lost $2 billion--it don't make it so
mingmen
Quote: Originally posted by thoroldjames the US currency has gone for shit
things have certainly slowed down
that doesn't mean recession---we may find ourselves there, in fact I think we might--but not yet
no different than when a corporation that made $10 billion last year and only makes $8 billion this year claims it lost $2 billion--it don't make it so
oh, the shiny "r" word :p
no inflation either
danrich03
Corporate sleaze has brought us to this point. Offshore cheap labor, sky-high trade deficit, etc. Everyone REALLY wanted those cheap goods at Wal-Mart, and they got 'em.
harley-davidson
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 We are WINNING Iraq.
There is NO recession.
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
Quote: Originally posted by thoroldjames this isn't a recession
it may become one, but it isn't one yet
the fact you can't afford a $400,000 home, or to fill up a Chevy Tahoe doesn't mean recession
Giving everyone payola to spend on Chinese crap is not a sign of real economic growth either.
VacateTheWord
Quote: Originally posted by danrich03 Corporate sleaze has brought us to this point. Offshore cheap labor, sky-high trade deficit, etc. Everyone REALLY wanted those cheap goods at Wal-Mart, and they got 'em.
Yeah, that had nothing to do with the greedy unions who seek to extort the corporations their members work for. Look at what the unions have done to American automobile manufacturers.
Rush Has AIDS
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord Yeah, that had nothing to do with the greedy unions who seek to extort the corporations their members work for. Look at what the unions have done to American automobile manufacturers.
There is no doubt that union has plenty to take blame for. But spare us, and don't try to excuse management for the industry's failings. They are as much to blame as the unions.
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 Sorry..you are just completely and totally wrong...AGAIN...as you seem to be on almost every issue.... You keep repeating this nonsense over and over...you have convinced yourself of it in the face of all the facts which scream otherwise....
You were saying the same thing 6 months ago... we were supposedly in a recession then too.....then it was going to come in the first quarter, then the second quarter.... then......And we are going to hit a recession at some time eventually. People like you act as though the economy has never slowed down, ever. You want to make it seem like this is the first time in 230 years, the American economy has slowed down.. Do you have ANY sense of history>?
Maybe you werent around in the 70's...it was much worse.... You have had a pretty good adult life if this is as bad as its ever been....
I don't see it because the facts don't show it...and the facts of the past 5 years certainly don't show it.... Your fantasy land refuses to accept those facts. You have your story and you are sticking to it, regardless of the truth.
/yawn. Can't you be even a little creative?
It’s possible to be a good Republican without trying to defend the indefensible.
I’m 48 years old so, yes, I remember the 70’s. High interest, long lines at the gas pumps.
Whatever.
It was easier to wait in line then than it is to spend $4/gallon for gas now.
Things, over all, were less stressful and difficult. Some things were inconvenient. But, over all, getting by was easier then than now.
I’m assuming you’re younger than me and your references to the 70’s are lines you’ve parroted from right-wing talk radio. So, I’m sure I won’t convince you other than to say, I was there and it’s much worse living in America now. Besides the domestic problems, we are also faced with the politics of an unjust and unwinnable war and have become a global embarrassment. Viet Nam didn’t end until the middle of the decade but we, at least, had half a decade of peace. With the Bush/McCain method, Iraq will loom large for decades and we may one day read of Osama dying peacefully in his sleep with his family by his side.
Never has global respect for America been so low. You can argue the tired old lines that “nobody ever liked America….everybody is jealous of America……” but, for the first time in my life, the world has become ashamed of America.
I, for the life of me, don’t know why that doesn’t bother you.
If you can’t take the blinders off completely, at least widen their range of vision a bit.
Right now, all you can see is straight up George W Bush’s ass.
ArivacaCharlie
Right-wingers:
Be careful about criticizing the 70's. A Republican was in the White House up until the last three years of the decade.
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie It’s possible to be a good Republican without trying to defend the indefensible.
I am not a Republican...not that your statement has anything to do with anything...
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie I’m 48 years old so, yes, I remember the 70’s. High interest, long lines at the gas pumps.
Whatever.
Right...whatever, :rolleyes: When presented with the facts, all you can say is 'whatever'...typical empty shell liberal...devoid of facts and reason. Lets not forget double digit inflation, and when you say 'high interest rates'..it means upper teens..... thats extremely high interest rates....
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie It was easier to wait in line then than it is to spend $4/gallon for gas now.
When you consider inflation, gas back then was about $3 a gallon in today's dollars...add to the the lines, the inflation, the interest rates and the higher unemployment and you get a situation where things were MUCH worse than they are now...in fact, its not even close.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Things, over all, were less stressful and difficult. Some things were inconvenient. But, over all, getting by was easier then than now.
And you know this because in the late 70's you were 18-19 years old... :rolleyes:
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie I’m assuming you’re younger than me and your references to the 70’s are lines you’ve parroted from right-wing talk radio.
I am 42, So I was also a teenager in the late 70's ....just like you.... THe fact that the late 70's was a horrible period for our nation has NOTHING to do with talk radio...(and how pathetic is it that you try and make that stupid point...) You have feelings...you feel it was better then....however the facts show otherwise. Liberals feel, conservatives think...starting thinking for a change.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie So, I’m sure I won’t convince you other than to say, I was there and it’s much worse living in America now.
I was there too....and again, the facts do not support your position.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Besides the domestic problems, we are also faced with the politics of an unjust and unwinnable war and have become a global embarrassment.
Sorry, we are winning the war...and what exactly would you call a rogue nation taking 52 American hostages for over a year, and the American President doing next to nothing, and when he finally did try something, it failed miserably. Luckily, a real President took office and got things done.
And I am still waiting for a list of all these countries that hate us, or how we are a 'global embarrassment'... Europe is voting in governments more friendly to the US. We are still looked to first in any disaster... Yours is nothing more than ANOTHER failed and debunked talking point which has not basis in fact or reason.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Viet Nam didn’t end until the middle of the decade but we, at least, had half a decade of peace.
Yeah, I'll bet the millions that were slaughtered in our wake loved that 5 years of peace.... :rolleyes:
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie With the Bush/McCain method, Iraq will loom large for decades and we may one day read of Osama dying peacefully in his sleep with his family by his side.
THe middle east will loom large for decades regardless....twits like you would rather have Al Qaeda and Islamic terrorists running rampant, and Arab dictators as far as the eye can see...
Ohh, and OBL is most likely already dead.... sorry.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Never has global respect for America been so low.
Again, repeated talking point with no basis in fact..... Not that it matters anyway.
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie You can argue the tired old lines that “nobody ever liked America….everybody is jealous of America……” but, for the first time in my life, the world has become ashamed of America.
Again, you keep repeating this nonsense as if it is true, and as if it makes a shit of difference....
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie I, for the life of me, don’t know why that doesn’t bother you.
I for the life of me don't know why you believe it, check that, yes I do...you hate Bush, it fits your worldview....carry on... and why it supposedly bothers you so much...
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie If you can’t take the blinders off completely, at least widen their range of vision a bit.
Right now, all you can see is straight up George W Bush’s ass.
/yawn.... more tired lame insults... Let me know when you start thinking, then we can talk...
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie Right-wingers:
Be careful about criticizing the 70's. A Republican was in the White House up until the last three years of the decade.
Nixon was a crook who should have ended up impeached...I have no problem with that... THere-in lies the difference.... you will defend the idiocy that was Jimmy Carter, while assuming that those on the right hold your level of intellectual dishonesty...And will not criticize Nixon. Carter was a horrible President regardless of what Nixon did... Ford was nothing to get excited about either, but he was clearly preferrable to the failure that was Jimmy Carter...
You probably love Carter because he has no problem going overseas and trashing America and trashing Bush..... THAT is the biggest reason that he is loved by the left today...
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 Nixon was a crook who should have ended up impeached...I have no problem with that... THere-in lies the difference.... you will defend the idiocy that was Jimmy Carter, while assuming that those on the right hold your level of intellectual dishonesty...And will not criticize Nixon. Carter was a horrible President regardless of what Nixon did... Ford was nothing to get excited about either, but he was clearly preferrable to the failure that was Jimmy Carter...
You probably love Carter because he has no problem going overseas and trashing America and trashing Bush..... THAT is the biggest reason that he is loved by the left today...
The narrowness off your scope of vision disallows the reality that Conservative thinking is in order at certain times while a Liberal overview is necessary at others.
You exhort liberals to think when it is you who brings a Checkers attitude to the Chess tournament.
You have no problem impeaching Nixon but you hold Bush up as a rightious and noble leader?!?
Your schizophrenic way of looking at Conservatism is troubling and should, in effect, disqualify you from participating in any political process.
Ah, but here in the land of freedom, you are nothing but an annoyance that we have to contend with in order to think through and fix that which your kind has fucked up so terribly.
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie The narrowness off your scope of vision disallows the reality that Conservative thinking is in order at certain times while a Liberal overview is necessary at others.
You exhort liberals to think when it is you who brings a Checkers attitude to the Chess tournament.
You have no problem impeaching Nixon but you hold Bush up as a rightious and noble leader?!?
Your schizophrenic way of looking at Conservatism is troubling and should, in effect, disqualify you from participating in any political process.
Ah, but here in the land of freedom, you are nothing but an annoyance that we have to contend with in order to think through and fix that which your kind has fucked up so terribly.
Your problem is that you compare Bush to Nixon...(its really your BDS) which takes any seriousness out of your post.
Please try again with a post not laced with hatred and anger towards Bush...again, try THINKING instead of FEELING....
Ohh, and I see that you are unable to bring yourself to say anything negative about Carter.. Just proving what all liberals do.....that they are EXACTLY what they accuse those on the right of being... You prove it with every post.
mr wrong
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 ...(its really your BDS) which takes any seriousness out of your post.
Your continuous reference to the "BDS" bullshit, takes the seriousness out of your entire position.
How's your ODS coming along, btw.
Tool.
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by mr wrong Your continuous reference to the "BDS" bullshit, takes the seriousness out of your entire position.
How's your ODS coming along, btw.
Tool.
Let me know when you say something relevant..... :rolleyes:
VacateTheWord
All the Liberals here who keep pushing this recession myth - we've had two straight quarters of growth. If you don't know how a recession is defined then look it up.
As for your openly rooting for the economy to do poorly so that you can use it as a political issue this fall - shame on you. Shame on you.
mr wrong
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 Let me know when you say something relevant..... :rolleyes:
Since when is the truth irrelevant?
Now run along and start another Barack Hussein Obama post..
Dabruin2
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord All the Liberals here who keep pushing this recession myth - we've had two straight quarters of growth. If you don't know how a recession is defined then look it up.
As for your openly rooting for the economy to do poorly so that you can use it as a political issue this fall - shame on you. Shame on you.
The housing market has seen record lows in sales and foreclosures in the the last quarter, and yet you believe government reports that we're in a growth period? Even in light of record gas prices? Even in light of all the job cuts by Ford? Even when the financial industry is going bankrupt?
VacateTheWord
Quote: Originally posted by Dabruin2 The housing market has seen record lows in sales and foreclosures in the the last quarter, and yet you believe government reports that we're in a growth period?
People taking out loans they had no business taking out has what, exactly, to do with the overall health of the economy? And in case you haven't noticed there is legislation that is going to help those who got into trouble.
Quote: Originally posted by Dabruin2 Even in light of record gas prices?
What does a commodity that is traded on the world market have to do with the American enonomy? We cannot bring down global prices unless we increase supply - which requires domestic drilling.
Quote: Originally posted by Dabruin2 Even in light of all the job cuts by Ford? Even when the financial industry is going bankrupt?
Ford builds lousy cars that few people want - they should start building decent, fuel efficient cars as Hyundai does, for example.
Fdubya247
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 Nixon was a crook who should have ended up impeached...I have no problem with that...
Is your stupid ass aware that John Dean proclaimed the Bush Cabal "Worse Than Watergate" years ago?
:opps:
NCDike69
Limp Member Jerk-off
Billyfromsphily
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord People taking out loans they had no business taking out has what, exactly, to do with the overall health of the economy? And in case you haven't noticed there is legislation that is going to help those who got into trouble.
What does a commodity that is traded on the world market have to do with the American enonomy? We cannot bring down global prices unless we increase supply - which requires domestic drilling.
Ford builds lousy cars that few people want - they should start building decent, fuel efficient cars as Hyundai does, for example.
What brilliant in depth analysis! Did you attend the Wharton School?
What does a commodity have to do? A lot more than your simple in reverse mind can fathom!
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by mr wrong Since when is the truth irrelevant?
Now run along and start another Barack Hussein Obama post..
And when you post any of it...let me know.
mr wrong
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 And when you post any of it...let me know.
See post 46.
Billyfromsphily
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 And when you post any of it...let me know.
Again you confirm your DENIAL!
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by mr wrong See post 46.
I did...and I am still waiting.
mr wrong
Not my fault you don't recognize the truth..
Not my fault you live in a perpetual state of denial..
Billyfromsphily
Hell will freeze over before LIEMASTER is ever CORRECT!
NCMike06
Quote: Originally posted by mr wrong Not my fault you don't recognize the truth..
Not my fault you live in a perpetual state of denial..
/yawn.
Kill Van Kull
Quote: Originally posted by ArivacaCharlie The narrowness off your scope of vision disallows the reality that Conservative thinking is in order at certain times while a Liberal overview is necessary at others.
You exhort liberals to think when it is you who brings a Checkers attitude to the Chess tournament.
You have no problem impeaching Nixon but you hold Bush up as a rightious and noble leader?!?
Your schizophrenic way of looking at Conservatism is troubling and should, in effect, disqualify you from participating in any political process.
Ah, but here in the land of freedom, you are nothing but an annoyance that we have to contend with in order to think through and fix that which your kind has fucked up so terribly.
:yes:
NCMike06
Please point to the recession....ready, set, DEFLECT.
rod_jammer
BarkonCue
harley-davidson
This was wrote a year ago, sound familiar ?
Quote: It’s Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun
It’s official. Mark your calendars. The crash of the U.S. economy has begun. It was announced the morning of Wednesday, June 13, 2007, by economic writers Steven Pearlstein and Robert Samuelson in the pages of the Washington Post, one of the foremost house organs of the U.S. monetary elite.
Pearlstein’s column was titled, “The Takeover Boom, About to Go Bust” and concerned the extraordinary amount of debt vs. operating profits of companies currently subject to leveraged buyouts.
In language remarkably alarmist for the usually ultra-bland pages of the Post, Pearlstein wrote, “It is impossible to predict when the magic moment will be reached and everyone finally realizes that the prices being paid for these companies, and the debt taken on to support the acquisitions, are unsustainable. When that happens, it won't be pretty. Across the board, stock prices and company valuations will fall. Banks will announce painful write-offs, some hedge funds will close their doors, and private-equity funds will report disappointing returns. Some companies will be forced into bankruptcy or restructuring.”
Further, “Falling stock prices will cause companies to reduce their hiring and capital spending while governments will be forced to raise taxes or reduce services, as revenue from capital gains taxes declines. And the combination of reduced wealth and higher interest rates will finally cause consumers to pull back on their debt-financed consumption. It happened after the junk-bond and savings-and-loan collapses of the late 1980s. It happened after the tech and telecom bust of the late '90s. And it will happen this time.”
Samuelson’s column, “The End of Cheap Credit,” left the door slightly ajar in case the collapse is not quite so severe. He wrote of rising interest rates, “As the price of money increases, borrowing and the economy might weaken. The deep slump in housing could worsen. We could also discover that the long period of cheap credit has left a nasty residue.”
Other writers with less prestigious platforms than the Post have been talking about an approaching financial bust for a couple of years. Among them has been economist Michael Hudson, author of an article on the housing bubble titled, “The New Road to Serfdom” in the May 2006 issue of Harper’s. Hudson has been speaking in interviews of a “break in the chain” of debt payments leading to a “long, slow economic crash,” with “asset deflation,” “mass defaults on mortgages,” and a “huge asset grab” by the rich who are able to protect their cash through money laundering and hedging with foreign currency bonds.
Among those poised to profit from the crash is the Carlyle Group, the equity fund that includes the Bush family and other high-profile investors with insider government connections. A January 2007 memorandum to company managers from founding partner William E. Conway, Jr., recently appeared which stated that, when the current “liquidity environment”—i.e., cheap credit—ends, “the buying opportunity will be a once in a lifetime chance.”
The fact that the crash is now being announced by the Post shows that it is a done deal. The Bilderbergers, or whomever it is that the Post reports to, have decided. It lets everyone know loud and clear that it’s time to batten down the hatches, run for cover, lay in two years of canned food, shield your assets, whatever.
Those left holding the bag will be the ordinary people whose assets are loaded with debt, such as tens of millions of mortgagees, millions of young people with student loans that can never be written off due to the “reformed” 2005 bankruptcy law, or vast numbers of workers with 401(k)s or other pension plans that are locked into the stock market.
In other words, it sounds eerily like 2000-2002 except maybe on a much larger scale. Then it was “only” the tenth worse bear market in history, but over a trillion dollars in wealth simply vanished. What makes today’s instance seem particularly unfair is that the preceding recovery that is now ending—the “jobless” one—was so anemic.
Neither Perlstein nor Samuelson gets to the bottom of the crisis, though they, like Conway of the Carlyle Group, point to the end of cheap credit. But interest rates are set by people who run central banks and financial institutions. They may be influenced by “the market,” but the market is controlled by people with money who want to maximize their profits.
Key to what is going on is that the Federal Reserve is refusing to follow the pattern set during the long reign of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in responding to shaky economic trends with lengthy infusions of credit as he did during the dot.com bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of 2001-2005.
This time around, Greenspan’s successor, Ben Bernanke, is sitting tight. With the economy teetering on the brink, the Fed is allowing rates to remain steady. The Fed claims their policy is due to the danger of rising “core inflation.” But this cannot be true. The biggest consumer item, houses and real estate, is tanking. Officially, unemployment is low, but mainly due to low-paying service jobs. Commodities have edged up, including food and gasoline, but that’s no reason to allow the entire national economy to be submerged.
So what is really happening? Actually, it’s simple. The difference today is that China and other large investors from abroad, including Middle Eastern oil magnates, are telling the U.S. that if interest rates come down, thereby devaluing their already-sliding dollar portfolios further, they will no longer support with their investments the bloated U.S. trade and fiscal deficits.
Of course we got ourselves into this quandary by shipping our manufacturing to China and other cheap-labor markets over the last generation. “Dollar hegemony” is backfiring. In fact China is using its American dollars to replace the International Monetary Fund as a lender to developing nations in Africa and elsewhere. As an additional insult, China now may be dictating a new generation of economic decline for the American people who are forced to buy their products at Wal-Mart by maxing out what is left of our available credit card debt.
About a year ago, a former Reagan Treasury official, now a well-known cable TV commentator, said that China had become “America’s bank” and commented approvingly that “it’s cheaper to print money than make cars anymore.” Ha ha.
It is truly staggering that none of the “mainstream” political candidates from either party has attacked this subject on the campaign trail. All are heavily funded by the financier elite who will profit no matter how bad the U.S. economy suffers. Every candidate except Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich treats the Federal Reserve like the fifth graven image on Mount Rushmore. And even the so-called progressives are silent. The weekend before the Perlstein/ Samuelson articles came out, there was a huge progressive conference in Washington, D.C., called “Taming the Corporate Giant.” Not a single session was devoted to financial issues.
What is likely to happen? I’d suggest four possible scenarios:
1.
Acceptance by the U.S. population of diminished prosperity and a declining role in the world. Grin and bear it. Live with your parents into your 40s instead of your 30s. Work two or three part-time jobs on the side, if you can find them. Die young if you lose your health care. Declare bankruptcy if you can, or just walk away from your debts until they bring back debtor’s prison like they’ve done in Dubai. Meanwhile, China buys more and more U.S. properties, homes, and businesses, as economists close to the Federal Reserve have suggested. If you’re an enterprising illegal immigrant, have fun continuing to jack up the underground economy, avoid business licenses and taxes, and rent out group houses to your friends.
2.
Times of economic crisis produce international tension and politicians tend to go to war rather than face the economic music. The classic example is the worldwide depression of the 1930s leading to World War II. Conditions in the coming years could be as bad as they were then. We could have a really big war if the U.S. decides once and for all to haul off and let China, or whomever, have it in the chops. If they don’t want our dollars or our debt any more, how about a few nukes?
3.
Maybe we’ll finally have a revolution either from the right or the center involving martial law, suspension of the Bill of Rights, etc., combined with some kind of military or forced-labor dictatorship. We’re halfway there anyway. Forget about a revolution from the left. They wouldn’t want to make anyone mad at them for being too radical.
4.
Could there ever be a real try at reform, maybe even an attempt just to get back to the New Deal? Since the causes of the crisis are monetary, so would be the solutions. The first step would be for the Federal Reserve System to be abolished as a bank of issue and a transformation of the nation’s credit system into a genuine public utility by the federal government. This way we could rebuild our manufacturing and public infrastructure and develop an income assurance policy that would benefit everyone.
The latter is the only sensible solution. There are monetary reformers who know how to do it if anyone gave them half a chance.
Richard C. Cook is the author of “Challenger Revealed: An Insider’s Account of How the Reagan Administration Caused the Greatest Tragedy of the Space Age.” A retired federal analyst, his career included work with the U.S. Civil Service Commission, the Food and Drug Administration, the Carter White House, and NASA, followed by twenty-one years with the U.S. Treasury Department. He is now a Washington, D.C.-based writer and consultant. His book “We Hold These Truths: The Hope of Monetary Reform,” will be published later this year. His website is at www.richardccook.com.
Richard C. Cook is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Richard C. Cook
Quote: China may lead US economy to collapse dumping US dollar
The U.S. dollar is standing at the edge of a cliff, and most people don’t even know it.
Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have been net sellers of U.S. treasuries over the past five weeks, with $48 billion having been sold since late July, and $32 billion in just the last two weeks.
The U.S. runs budget deficits each year. If foreigners stop buying treasuries—or worse, start selling them—the dollar could be in big trouble.
The reduction in treasuries “comes as a big surprise and it is definitely worrying,” said Hans Redeker, foreign exchange strategy chief at bnp Paribas, one of Europe’s biggest banks.
The Telegraph reported that, according to Redeker, the numbers demonstrate “that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the U.S.”
The nation that analysts are watching especially closely at this stage is China. Whether or not Beijing is selling its dollars can’t be officially confirmed until November, when the Treasury releases its tic data. However, top Beijing officials have been signaling for at least two years that dollar sales are increasingly imminent.
This past August, two Chinese government officials highlighted China’s massive U.S. dollar holdings (which include treasuries) and how it supports the value of the U.S. currency. They also noted that Beijing could use those holdings as a political weapon to counter congressional calls to revalue the yuan and impose trade sanctions on Chinese goods. Chinese state media referred to the country’s stockpile of U.S. dollars as its economic “nuclear option,” capable of destroying the dollar at will.
Beijing also clearly signaled that it would begin “diversifying” out of the dollar earlier this year when it announced plans to rebalance its $1.34 trillion currency reserves, which are mostly U.S. bonds. Already Beijing has created a $300 billion investment fund to use those dollars to purchase other assets in an attempt to increase its investment returns.
It should come as no shock, then, that China would now be selling its dollar holdings.
The danger, as the Telegraph notes, relates to the fact that China holds such a large amount of treasuries. Any confirmed evidence that China was no longer supporting the dollar, and was actually selling it, risks setting off “an unstoppable stampede” in which other nations would seek to dump their holdings before China swamps the market and demand for dollars is overwhelmed.
The implications of a run on the dollar due to Chinese treasury-dumping go far beyond just the value of the greenback.
Quote: Originally posted by VacateTheWord Yeah, that had nothing to do with the greedy unions who seek to extort the corporations their members work for. Look at what the unions have done to American automobile manufacturers.
This is kind of a funny statement. Unions are about 12% of the US workforce, yet they're to blame for a downturn?
This is like 1932 Germany blaming their economic downturn on Jews.
You really believe such a small minority of blue-collar workers has such a big impact on your daily life,?
ArivacaCharlie
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 Your problem is that you compare Bush to Nixon...(its really your BDS) which takes any seriousness out of your post.
Please try again with a post not laced with hatred and anger towards Bush...again, try THINKING instead of FEELING....
Ohh, and I see that you are unable to bring yourself to say anything negative about Carter.. Just proving what all liberals do.....that they are EXACTLY what they accuse those on the right of being... You prove it with every post.
Again you talk out of your ass.
I voted for Reagan over Carter so, no, I'm not a big fan of him.
The point was that the 70's was primarily a Republican decade and it was fucked up like this decade which has also been dominated by a Republican leader.
Coincidence?
And regarding my comparison of Bush to Nixon:
Nixon was stupid enough to get himself caught. But, that doesn't mean that Bush is not more corrupt.
Keep the blinders on. At least you can't see yourself as the jerk-off the rest of us see.
Zoomies
Quote: Originally posted by Dabruin2 The housing market has seen record lows in sales and foreclosures in the the last quarter, and yet you believe government reports that we're in a growth period? Even in light of record gas prices? Even in light of all the job cuts by Ford? Even when the financial industry is going bankrupt?
The housing market is not an indicator of the current economy. At this point it does not help. The fact people were buying more house than they could afford and the mortage industry was mismanaged caused the housing bubble to burst. It was inevitable. That kind of growth can not be sustained and it was not sustained which we can plainly see. With the boom of housing loans the mortgage companies could hide their mismanagement because they had a huge positive cash flow. When the economy slowed they got caught with their pants down when the cash flow dried up.
Rafterman
Quote: Originally posted by NCMike06 We are WINNING Iraq.
There is NO recession.
You do NOT live in reality..you live in Hate Bush fantasy land...where only debunked talking points and those who repeat them live...
