Pentagon warns of military threat from China

China could pose a future military threat to other Asian countries but its current ability to project power beyond its periphery was "limited", the Pentagon said on Tuesday.

In its long-awaited annual report on the Chinese military, the Pentagon concluded that China was increasing its efforts to prepare for a conflict over Taiwan, including taking longer-term measures to defend itself from other countries who could get involved in a conflict over Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province.

"We see China facing a strategic crossroads," the Pentagon report said. "Questions remain about the basic choices China's leaders will make as China's power and influence grow, particularly its military power."

The report said the Chinese military was focusing in the short term on modernising its ability to fight short, high-intensity conflicts along its periphery. But it said the People's Liberation Army was also taking longer-term steps to increase its defences against the potential involvement of other countries in any conflict between China and Taiwan.

Those measures include expanding its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, its submarine fleet, and purchasing advanced aircraft.

"Over the long term, if current trends persist, PLA capabilities could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region," the report said.

But while the report said China posed a potential future threat to other Asian countries, it concluded that China's current ability to "project conventional military power beyond its periphery remains limited."

The report added that the PLA was working towards its goals by "acquiring new foreign and domestic weapon systems and military technologies [and] promulgating new doctrine for modern warfare".

The tone of the report echoed remarks by Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, who when speaking to a June meeting of Asian defence ministers in Singapore questioned why China was dramatically increasing its defence budget when "no nation threatens China".

The report came on the heels of comments by a senior Chinese general last week who suggested that China would be prepared to use nuclear weapons in any conflict with the US over Taiwan.

Mr Rumsfeld on Tuesday described those remarks as a "bump in the road" in a relationship that has seen improvement over the past few years.

He also said the Pentagon report demonstrated why it was important for the EU not to lift its embargo on arms sales to China. The EU appears to have moved away from lifting the embargo this year because of strong lobbying from the US.

The report has been the subject of intense bureaucratic infighting as anti-China concerns mount on Capitol Hill. The State Department and National Security Council opposed an initial Pentagon draft, which they believed painted an overly antagonistic picture by signalling that China could emerge as a "strategic rival" to the US.

"This report is much improved over the past five years, and is well balanced, yet pioneers with new evidence that China's build-up goes beyond Taiwan," said Mike Pillsbury, an author on the Chinese military who advocates a hard-line stance on China.

"The build-up includes forces that can be redeployed away from Taiwan some day toward any other regional nations such as India, Japan, Vietnam, even Central Asia and Russia. Yet the report is careful not to call China a threat to the US."

The report also criticised China for the level of secrecy it maintains about its military strategy and expenditures.

"The outside world has little knowledge of Chinese motivations and decision-making and of key capabilities supporting PLA modernisation."

The report also called for Taiwan to take measures to counter the increased Chinese military build-up across the Taiwan Strait. It estimated that China had 650-730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles pointed towards Taiwan, to which it was expected to add an additional 100 missiles per year.

"The cross-Strait balance of power is shifting toward Beijing," the report said. "Chinese air, naval, and missile force modernisation is increasing demands on Taiwan to develop countermeasures that would enable it to avoid being quickly overwhelmed."

Raising alarms for the US navy, the report concluded that China was developing the capability to slow, or even deter, US efforts to defend Taiwan in the case of a conflict.

"The US intelligence community also believes China will consider a sea-denial strategy to attempt to hold at risk US naval forces, including aircraft carriers and logistic forces, approaching the Taiwan Strait," it said.

But the report also warned that China was positioning itself to respond to other potential conflicts, not just Taiwan.

"All of China's short-range ballistic missiles, although garrisoned opposite Taiwan, are mobile and can deploy throughout the country to take up firing positions in support of a variety of regional contingencies... There are corresponding improvements in intercontinental-range missiles capable of striking targets across the globe, including in the US."

The report added that China was increasing deploying missiles that could target India, Russia, and "virtually all of the US" in addition to Australia and New Zealand.

"The pace and scope of China's military build-up are, already, such as to put regional military balances at risk," the report said.

"Current trends in China's military modernisation could provide China with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia -- well beyond Taiwan."

The Pentagon also raised concerns about Chinese strategic deception, saying the PLA was reverting to "ancient Chinese statecraft". It said, for example, China had developed several new weapons systems that Western countries were unaware of, although it did not name the systems.

While critics of US policy have raised concerns that the Bush administration is moving to weaponise space, the Pentagon raised similar concerns about China, saying it was developing anti-satellite weapons. In particular, China was believed to be conducting research on ground-based laser weapons capable of damaging or destroying satellites, the report said.

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China's Military Looks Beyond Taiwan, Pentagon

China's Military Looks Beyond Taiwan, Pentagon

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- China is rapidly expanding its military capability, boosting its potential to strike beyond Taiwan and jeopardizing the balance of power in the region, the Pentagon said in a report to Congress.

China continues to deploy its most advanced weapons opposite Taiwan and is increasing emphasis on new technologies and strategies with the aim of winning ``short-duration, high- intensity conflicts,'' the report said. China is increasing the number of short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan by about 100 per year, the report released today said.

The mobility of China's short-range missiles, coupled with advances in air and naval forces ``are scoped for operations beyond'' Taiwan, the report said. Continued advancements could provide it with a force capable of conducting various military operations in Asia ``well beyond Taiwan,'' the report said.

The balance of power in the Taiwan Strait appears to be shifting toward China due to its expanding economy, growing diplomatic leverage and improvements in military capability, the report said. Meanwhile, Taiwan's defense spending has declined, leaving vulnerable the island nation China regards as a renegade province.

``It's not that the Pentagon's report is alarmist, it's that Chinese military modernization, particularly since 1998, is worrisome and alarming,'' said James Mulvenon, a China expert and deputy director of the Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, a Washington-based research group.

China's Foreign Ministry didn't respond to two telephone two calls seeking comment.

`Traditional Boundaries'

Pang Zhongying, a professor of international relations at Tianjin's Nankai University and a political commentator, said he doesn't believe the U.S. is ``correct'' in saying that China is preparing for regional warfare beyond Taiwan.

``China has signed free-trade agreements with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and is focused on only economic development,'' he said. ``China's build up is purely to ensure its traditional boundaries and this is primarily Taiwan.''

China's growing military is a top concern as U.S. policy makers shape long-range defense strategy. Today's report may intensify debate in the U.S. over its stance toward China, which in March passed a law that approves an invasion of Taiwan in the event it declares independence. President George W. Bush said in April 2001 said the U.S. ``would do whatever it takes'' to defend Taiwan in case of attack.

Multifaceted Relationship

The report comes as Bush is seeking Chinese support on a wide range of diplomatic, economic and strategic initiatives, such as halting North Korea's nuclear weapons buildup and gaining assistance in the global war on terror.

Relations between the governments in Washington and Beijing may determine whether the Bush administration can succeed in negotiations with North Korea, which next week will return to six- party talks with the U.S., South Korea, Russia, Japan and China. Tensions in Asia have risen since February when North Korea announced it has nuclear weapons.

Economic and trade disagreements between the U.S. and China have sharpened. The Bush administration wants China to overhaul many of its trade policies. In addition to changing the value of its currency, the U.S. wants China to clamp down on piracy of movies and other intellectual property.

Economic Concerns

The Pentagon report laid out scenarios for China's future, including a possible ``major'' economic downturn that could generate unrest and challenge communist central control. The report does not say this course is more likely than others, including rising nationalism that supports a more assertive foreign policy.

Competition for oil and other natural resources is fomenting rivalry between China and other nations. China in 2003 became the world's second-largest consumer of oil. Growing resource demands are drawing China closer to ``problem countries such as Iran, Sudan and Venezuela'' and contributing to tensions with Japan, the report said.

China is buying advanced weapons from Russia and Israel. If the European Union decided to lift its arms embargo to China, the consequences would be ``serious and numerous,'' the report said. China's swelling defense budget is estimated to be two to three times what the communist nation's government reports.

Limited Capability

While the Pentagon study highlights China's growing military prowess and lingering uncertainty about its intentions, it also downplays some of China's capabilities, such as its naval strength, and said the U.S. ``welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China.''

``China's ability to project conventional military power beyond its periphery remains limited,'' the report said.

Chinese military strategists are studying ``ancient Chinese statecraft,'' including what the Pentagon called ``strategic deception'' that may influence its development of weapons and possible confrontations.

Major General Zhu Chenghu of the People's Liberation Army told foreign journalists last week that China was prepared to use nuclear weapons against the U.S. if it is attacked during a confrontation over Taiwan. ``We will be determined to respond,'' Zhu said.

China has about 20 nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles and has 20 shorter-range nuclear missiles, the report said. It is set to deploy mobile missile launchers to supplement its nuclear arsenal. China is also investing in space defense and ``could develop a laser weapon capable of damaging or destroying satellites,'' the report said.

U.S. Defense Spending

The U.S. Defense Department assesses its spending and strategy every four years. The ``quadrennial defense review'' now under way, the first since the Sept. 11 attacks, will be presented to Congress later this year in time to shape the fiscal 2007 defense budget. China's growing military power will be a focus of the report, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told the House Armed Services Committee in March.

``There are bumps in the road but as I see it, China is on a path where they are determined to increase their economy and opportunities for their people,'' Rumsfeld told reporters today.


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Kind of makes you feel all warm a cozy inside..... Scary shit